What does the mobile future look like? A look back at a 2010 UK government prediction

Tim Dunn has just posted an interesting look back at the mobile future piece he wrote for the UK government in 2010. At 30,000 words the original piece is a bit of a slog to get through but is actually a great way to get to know lots about mobile in a short time, even if some isn’t super current. 

What I like about Tim’s post is the summary of what is not covered in the 2010 piece that would likely make it into a ‘mobile futures’ piece if written today. When discussing potential topics for inclusion, Tim writes:

I welcome your ideas below the line, but as a starter for 10, perhaps we would be looking at:

 

  • Natural interfaces – the growth of new intuitive ways to control the device, such as eye-scrolling and gesture recognition
  • Socio-economic dimorphism of mobile adoption and behavior based on geography and class. Will we see 4G simply extend and deepen the rural ‘not-spots’ we already see in broadband coverage? And will open OS smartphones truly enable digital participation regardless of earnings?
  • ID – I really don’t think we’ve scratched the surface of this. Smartphones should be able to carry secure and inviolable credentials such as passports and driving licences, but I don’t see much work in the field. Also, we should surely be able to scan or verify ID without the need for peripherals such as Square? Surely mobile will be able to deliver the vision of people like Dick Hardt as shown in this bravura performance from 2006
  • Enterprise – at Roundarch Isobar we do huge amounts of work in the Enterprise space that would be mind-boggling to my European colleagues. But I still think there’s a long way to go in B2B and B2E, specifically with BYOD in mind. Microsoft guys such as Matt Ballantine are providing leading thinking in this space
  • Location – this might seem like an old chestnut now, but the fact that mobile is, well, mobile, has not been mined to anything like its full potential. The capabilities have been very much held back by lack of physical infrastructure and lack of standardization, but payment and vouchering should now be on the up as business gears up to match consumer behavior in the converged world.
  • Connected Devices – with the smartphone packing the same processing power that a mainframe could deliver not so long ago, your phone is likely to be the center of your own local cloud services before long with anything from your watch to your soccer team to (whisper it) your fridge hanging off it for processing power and network functions

Whilst all points are key, and would pull out enterprise and location as key. Not necessarily for the obvious reasons. Whilst I believe topics such as the internet of things / connected devices is far more exciting, and will have massive impact on how we use physical and digital products together, I can see first hand the changes that mobile devices are having in the enterprise world right now. Businesses are embracing BYOD and modern smartphones – the iPhone is the most used enterprise device in the US – this has already opened up the possibilities of what can be delivered on business devices, where does this go in a couple of years?

Location is interesting because of how this impacts on content and UX. Whilst people argue about whether a mobile web site should include full site content or not, what is interesting to start to think about is how whatever content included reacts to the environment in which it is used. How does a mobile site accessed on a 3G connection, near a car showroom, directed to by specific Google search terms react when combined with the same user’s previous desktop behaviour on the same site? How does a supermarket mobile site react when it picks up chemical signals from a banana using sensors such as the Node?

Head on over to Tim’s blog to read the full article and get a load of useful links.

 

 

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